College Football's Three Up, Three Down: Week 1 Edition

With the first week of the 2009 college football season in the books, it's time to take stock of...well...draft stock. Specifically, whose went up and whose went down? Also, whose rise and whose fall should be tempered?

Two Up

Jimmy Clausen, Notre Dame
What I loved about Clausen this weekend had little to do with his 15 for 18 performance, which included 315 passing yards and 4 touchdowns in a 35-0 victory over dramatically over-matched Nevada. It had more to do with his pocket presence, patience, vision and accuracy. He made some beautiful throws in tight spots, appeared lead his offense with poise, command and maturity (a quality not often attributed to the Notre Dame quarterback). While Saturday's impressive display came against an inferior Nevada squad, a few more NFL scouts are likely booking tickets to Fighting Irish games. Clausen is young and somewhat of a long shot to declare for the 2010 NFL Draft, but when he does, a body of work containing film like that of Saturday's performance could make the young signal caller a hot NFL commodity.

Jahvid Best, California
In California's 52-13 drubbing of Maryland on Saturday night, Best looked nearly unstoppable. Everyone already knew he's a shifty speed demon. What he demonstrated more of on Saturday, however, is that he's also a durable back willing to run between the tackles even when his team is up by 30+ points. The more Best shows that he's a football player with sprinter speed and not a sprinter with football aspirations, the stronger his bid as a first round draft pick will be. And it's already pretty strong, by the way.


One Up, But Don't Get Too Excited Just Yet

Jake Locker, Washington
Locker nearly led his Washington Huskies to a huge upset against LSU Saturday night. He may very well have if his receivers knew that, as receivers, their jobs are to catch the ball when it is thrown to them. Locker was not only an athletic quarterback who could get out of the pocket and make plays passing on the run or running the ball himself. He stood in the pocket with poise and presence and made strong, accurate throws from it. However, while he showed that he has the ability to do such things, he's not yet showed that he's superior at them. Also, while LSU was the vastly more athletic team on the field, their defense looked tired and sluggish. Nonetheless, keep your eyes on Locker this season. He could very well be budding into the next Tim Tebow, but with far better passing skills and, consequently, NFL prospects.


Two Down

LeGarrette Blount, Oregon
Rocky Balb - I mean LeGarrette Blount's sucker punch has been well publicized. What hasn't been is his -5 yard performance against Boise State after an offseason during which he was reprimanded for coming into camp overweight and slow. Barring a nexus of dramatic emotional, psychological and physical turnarounds, Blount has seen his projected draft position fall from somewhere around the 2nd round to out of the draft entirely.

Tim Hiller, Western Michigan
Hiller's poor performance last weekend stemmed partly from facing a talented and revived football team in superior state rival Michigan. However, his lack of accuracy, poise, decisiveness and vision, qualities that aren't necessarily supposed to be invisible against better opposition, were...well...invisible; if they existed at all, that is. They were not seen and, ostensibly, not there to be seen. It looks like Hiller has a lot of work to do if he wants to be a future NFL franchise quarterback and not just a physical specimen with 'all the tools' to succeed at the professional level.


One Down, But Don't Get Too Worried Just Yet

Sam Bradford, Oklahoma
Okay, so Bradford's Oklahoma Sooner squad was the victim of the first week's biggest upset against BYU and Bradford himself will be out for 2-4 weeks with an injury to his AC joint in his shoulder. I still don't understand how analysts are already speaking about his NFL prospects in the past tense in a manner reminiscent of the children's book character Chicken Little. Just hold, for now, the 'coulda, woulda, shoulda' talk regarding Bradford's decision to play college football this season rather than declare for the 2009 NFL draft last April. Oklahoma's BCS hopes have taken a huge it. I can't deny that. However, assuming Bradford recovers in time, he'll still be viewed as the most talented quarterback in the draft next April with plenty of film and experience to back it up; barring any meteoric rises from other college quarterbacks, of course. For now, Sam Bradford is still the best NFL prospect at the quarterback position in college football; and, in my opinion, it's not even close.

2009-2010 NFL Draft Prospect Preseason Rankings: Running Backs

1. Jahvid Best, California (5-10, 195)

What to Like
Best is blazing fast, but not a sprinter who just happens to play football. He doesn't shy away from hits and is electrifying in the open field. His athleticism and pure natural talent is second to none.

What to Worry About
Sometimes, Best tends to rely solely upon his obvious physical talents rather than follow his blockers to open field. If he's going to succeed in the NFL, he'll have to learn a little more patience and use his vision and teammates as well as he does his natural athletic gifts.

Bottom Line
Possibly the most exciting player in college football, Jahvid Best should be a surefire 1st round pick next April. Assuming he can stay healthy and refine his game's rough edges a little, I can't see any other running back hearing their name called before he does in the 2010 NFL Draft.

Best Positional/Schematic Fit
Similar to C.J. Spiller, he would serve extremely well as a tailback in a two back system. However, I like his prospects of running between the tackles better than those of Spiller's. I think Best could play on most downs and spelled only on short yardage and/or goal line situations.


2. C.J. Spiller, Clemson (5-11, 193)

What to Like
Spiller has a great burst, superior shiftiness and follows his blockers well with excellent vision. He's usually physical runner when he needs to be, even though he occasionally avoids contact and uses the sideline as a sanctuary. He also possesses soft hands and displays good pass catching ability coming out of the backfield.

What to Worry About
As previously mentioned, Spiller sometimes shies away from contact, heading out of bounds instead of lowering his helmet and shoulder for extra yardage. This also raises a few questions about his physical toughness and, by extension, his prospects of running between the tackles.

Bottom Line
Spiller must be considered as a top running back heading into next year's draft. His superior athleticism and experience in the return game make him an exciting prospect - probably one slated for the 1st round.

Best Positional/Schematic Fit
I love what C.J. could bring to a West Coast offense as he has seen a lot of success receiving out of the backfield. He could also benefit any team as the shifty, complementary tailback to a between-the-tackles-workhorse back in a two back tandem/system. Spiller could also serve as a kick or punt returner, a role with which he has a lot of experience and natural ability.


3. Jonathon Dwyer, Georgia Tech (5-11, 228)

What to Like
Dwyer may not have Best's or Spiller's speed or quickness, but he's a better every-down back. He's a physical wrecking ball and very good running between the tackles. He also has good speed for his size, good vision and his skills translate well to the next level.

What to Worry About
Dwyer isn't going to beat a lot of NFL corners to the outside. As far as homerun ability, he'll be limited against faster competition. Breakaway speed and the ability to instantly change directions will likely be his only shortcomings as a runner in the NFL.

Bottom Line
Jonathan Dwyer should go early in the NFL Draft when he declares. He's extremely physical and should be a good runner behind the offensive line. He's a well rounded back and, in all likelihood, should go sometime in the first two rounds.

Best Positional/Schematic Fit
On a running back-poor team, he'd be an every-down back. On a running back-rich team, he'd be a short yardage or redzone back. His talents will fit in almost any system as short yardage backs are always a commodity - especially in redzone packages.


4. LeGarrette Blount, Oregon (6-2, 238)

What to Like
Blount is surprisingly versatile for his size. He's good in the open field, never gives up on a play and displays good vision and better speed than you would think.

What to Worry About
The primary concern regarding Blount should be how his unique mix of size and athleticism translates to the NFL. It remains to be seen whether these qualities will be effective against bigger, faster competition. He may have two physical advantages on most defenders and he may have none. Time will tell.

Bottom Line
Some NFL team will most likely take LeGarrette Blount in the first two rounds of the draft next April, hoping his abilities prove effective at the professional level. He reminds me a little of Johnathan Stewart, also from Oregon, and looks to have the same success as his predecessor at his alma mater.

Best Positional/Schematic Fit
It's difficult to tell how offenses will use Blount and what they'll ask him to do at this point. Most likely, he'll either be a dynamic every-down runner or he'll be a short yardage/goal line back who possesses the added threat of cutting outside and beating opposing linebackers to the outside with a little surprising speed and quickness.


5. Joe McKnight, USC (6-0, 200)

What to Like
McKnight is very well rounded and has excellent vision. While he is not superlative in any specific area, he has no glaring weaknesses or rough edges.

What to Worry About
In the NFL, McKnight might not get away with making some of the decisions he made running the ball in college. Neither his speed, nor his cutting ability will over match NFL defenders and he may have to adopt a little more of a north/south running style than the one he used to great success in college. This is a byproduct of the fact that he is not athletically superior in any category.

Bottom Line
A possible 2nd or 3rd rounder in the 2010 NFL Draft, Joe McKnight will likely be a solid backup somewhere in the NFL. It's doubtful that he has the physical make-up to be the explosive playmaker NFL teams are always looking for.

Best Positional/Schematic Fit
McKnight will be a solid change of pace back in most NFL systems. He'll likely see some time as a backup running back or the second back in two-back formations.

2009-2010 NFL Draft Prospect Preseason Rankings: Quarterbacks

Late August has arrived and that can mean only one thing...my birthd - I mean college football. So, before the season begins, I'd like to issue my preseason positional rankings of potential 2010 NFL Draft prospects. These rankings will likely change throughout the season, but we'll cross that wobbly, poorly built bridge when we come to it.

Where else would we start but with the quarterbacks? The 2010 class looks to be at least the best since 2004 and likely the best since 1999 (let's leave out comparisons with the 1983 class for now). With most positions of which there is only one on the field at a time, I will offer up my top 5. However, with quarterback being such a vital position and with 2010 being such a terrific class, I'll broaden my top 5 to a splendid 7 (as well as a Dark Horse or two).

Also, keep in mind that these rankings are based not on college efficacy or proficiency, but on projected success or productivity in transitioning to the professional level - the NFL.

Anyway, here they are:

2009 - 2010 NFL Draft Prospect Preseason Quarterback Rankings (The Splendid 7)

1. Sam Bradford, Oklahoma, (6-4, 218)

What to Like
Bradford has superlative accuracy, excellent vision, a quick release and an undeniably attuned sense of timing.

What to Worry About
Bradford's inexperience with both pre-snap reads and leading teams against superior ones engenders questions about his transition to the NFL – specifically playing for a team deficient enough in talent to be selecting him with a top 5 or 10 draft pick.

Bottom Line
If Bradford can answer the few questions attached to him, he could truly be something special. It may, however, take a few years for him to be absolutely ready to assume the role of a starting signal caller in the NFL.

Best Positional/Schematic Fit
If Bradford answers the few questions surrounding him, he could be very productive in just about any NFL offense – excluding the Wildcat or Single Wing.


2. Jevan Snead, Ole Miss (6-3, 215)

What to Like
Snead is a good size for an NFL quartergback and displays good accuracy, arm strength and presence. In addition, Ole Miss employs a more pro-style offense than the other top prospects at quarterback.

What to Worry About
After transferring from Texas, where he was forever to be Colt McCoy's backup, Snead has somewhat come out of nowhere as a college star and will need to have a solid 2009 season to prove that 2008 wasn't a fluke and that he belongs in the upper tier of 2010's draft prospects. My feeling is that he will and is a future surefire 1st round pick.

Bottom Line
While Snead needs experience and another year of college football under his belt to be considered a top 2010 draft prospect, he looked every bit the part of an NFL quarterback in 2008. If he improves in 2009, he's a sure first rounder in the 2010 NFL Draft.

Best Positional/Schematic Fit
Snead would be a perfect fit in a vertical passing scheme. That is not to say, however, that he would be a poor fit in a West Coast-style offense. Like Bradford, he should be a solid fit in most NFL offenses excluding the Wildcat or Single Wing.


3. Colt McCoy, Texas (6-3, 210)

What to Like
McCoy is a tough, athletic, improvisational leader who is poised in the pocket and who possesses the 'it' factor in abundance.

What to Worry About
McCoy's lack of superior arm strength and downfield accuracy (his mid-range accuracy is more than adequate) could render him a poor fit for some vertically focused NFL offenses. He'll also likely have to add a little more weight and bulk if he is to withstand NFL defenses for the long (or even mid) haul.

Bottom Line
If McCoy improves his downfield accuracy and arm strength just a tad and his mobility translates to the NFL, he could make a very quick and successful transition to the NFL. Even if he doesn't improve in those areas in 2009, he could likely be counted on as a starting NFL quarterback by middle or late 2010.

Best Positional/Schematic Fit
McCoy's best fit would be with a West Coast-type offense that uses mostly short to mid-range patterns predicated on timing and smart quarterback play while also affording the signal caller some creativity as far as moving out of the pocket and making decisions and throws while on the run. These elements in an offensive scheme would fit McCoy to a tee and see him make a relatively quick impact on an NFL team.


4. Dan LeFevour, Central Michigan (6-3, 228)

What to Like
LeFevour's arm strength, poise in the pocket and mobility out of it are everything an NFL front office could want in a franchise quarterback. It's cliché, but he has all the physical tools.

What to Worry About
LeFevour's accuracy and decision making are inconsistent and he has very little experience against superior opponents playing at Central Michigan.

Bottom Line
LeFevour must refine his game by improving his accuracy, decision-making, and defense reading skills. If he does, he could be a very good NFL quarterback.

Best Positional/Schematic Fit
If LeFevour refines his game, he'll be a great fit in any NFL offense. His talents may be raw, but as a passer, they are as wide ranging as any quarterback in this class.


5. Tim Hiller, Western Michigan (6-5, 228)

What to Like
Hiller has prototypical size and outstanding arm strength – probably the best in his class; he throws a beautiful and accurate deep ball.

What to Worry About
Hiller's delivery is a little slow, his footwork is a somewhat sloppy and his short to intermediate accuracy leaves something to be desired.

Bottom Line
The key for Hiller is his footwork and overall mechanics. If he can dramatically improve his mechanics, benefits would likely include improved delivery and better accuracy. If he can achieve those, the sky is the limit for Hiller, who is a fairly raw, but intelligent and coachable quarterback with unlimited upside.

Best Positional/Schematic Fit
Assuming Hiller improves his weaker areas of play, he'll be an ideal pocket passer in a vertical passing scheme. His height and arm strength would allow him to see clearly over the offensive line and throw lasers to all areas of the field.


6. Zac Robinson, Oklahoma State (6-3, 212)

What to Like
Robinson is very elusive within the pocket and displays impressive accuracy and awareness.

What to Worry About
Aside from inexperience, Robinson hasn't shown that he has the arm strength to make all of the throws he'll need to be able to make consistently in the NFL.

Bottom Line
Robinson has plenty to prove and improve upon in 2009, but he's already a confident, poised and talented leader. With more experience and a consistent 2009, Robinson could make himself a first or second prospect in a very strong 2010 quarterback class.

Best Positional/Schematic Fit
A West Coast offense would suit Robinson perfectly. Throwing short timing patterns and making quick decisions are his strengths and staples of the typical West Coast offense.


7. Jimmy Clausen, Notre Dame (6-3, 217)

What to Like
Clausen has flashes of brilliance, displaying superior accuracy, touch and sense of timing.

What to Worry About
Still young and severely lacking maturity, Clausen suffers from intermittent lapses in focus and desperately needs experience.

Bottom Line
A very polarizing figure in college football (polarity augmented by an equal number of accessible lowlights to number of highlights), Clausen needs to get as much experience as a starting college quarterback as possible. If he does so, while improving his focus, consistency and mental makeup, he could be a phenomenal prospect; though most likely in 2011.

Best Positional/Schematic Fit
It may be too early to tell. Thus far, he would fit best in a West Coast-type of offense with more deep patterns added to the playbook. He'll be easier to place when he physically matures into the quarterback he's ultimately going to be.


Dark Horse(s)

Jake Locker, Washington (6-3, 223)

What to Like
Locker is an extremely mobile, physical runner and has a very strong arm.

What to Worry About
While an undeniably superior athlete, Locker is far too reliant on his running ability and has a lot of improvement to make in the throwing accuracy and defense-reading departments.

Bottom Line
Locker reminds me of a less sensationalized Tim Tebow surrounded by less talent with better prospects as a pure passer. Nonetheless, he would probably be advised not to come out until 2011...at least.

Best Positional/Schematic Fit
Locker would fit well in a Wildcat/vertical passing hybrid. Taking advantage of Locker's attributes will hopefully be the responsibility of a brilliantly innovative offensive coordinator.


Tim Tebow, Florida (6-3, 238)

What to Like
Tebow is a dynamic, willful leader with superior toughness and athleticism.

What to Worry About
Tebow's lack of NFL caliber accuracy and inexperience reading defenses are huge question marks heading into the 2009 NCAA Football season.

Bottom Line
While being a dynamic athlete and leader, Tebow will need to improve (and has apparently done a lot of work doing so) many quarterback-related areas of his game to prove that he's cut out for the NFL. His inadequacies as a quarterback along with his unorthodox skillset make him a difficult evaluation when it comes to assessing his prospects for playing and succeeding on the professional level...at least at the quarterback position.

Best Positional/Schematic Fit
See Jake Locker.